EURUSD Trade Recap – ICT Smart Money Concepts Short Setup | May 27, 2025

Pair: EUR/USD
Style: Forex Day Trading using ICT Smart Money Concepts
Date: Tuesday, May 27, 2025
Session: New York

Understanding Structure, Retracements, and Patience

📌 Overview

Tuesday’s trade on EURUSD was a perfect reminder of why market structure matters and how important it is to understand retracements vs. reversals. I went into the day with a clear game plan based on higher timeframes, recent price action, and key levels on the Dollar Index (DXY).

🧭 Higher Timeframe Bias

🟢 Dollar Index (DXY)

• At the midnight candle (1H), DXY gave a strong bullish close, breaking above Friday’s large down-move and closing above a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG).

• On the daily chart, I anticipated price would:

  • Take out Monday’s high, and

  • Reach into a daily bearish Order Block (OB) — either tapping the OB open or filling the lower wick to close the remaining FVG.

This led to a bullish bias on DXY for the day, and because of the inverse correlation, a bearish bias on EURUSD going into London session.

🔍 The Power of the 4H Candle Close

Before taking any trade, I waited for the 4H candle to close at midnight.
Why? Because market structure always tells the story.

• Looking back at last week’s move from Thursday to Friday, EURUSD had a strong imbalanced move to the upside.

• So, logically, the new week would offer a retracement opportunity — not necessarily a reversal, just a potential rebalancing of price.

• The 4H candle began showing bearish structure, giving us the idea that a retracement was unfolding — not that the pair was fully bearish yet.

This reinforced the concept:
✅ Market structure gives us clarity on intent.
✅ Retracements offer tradable setups — even in bullish trends.

🗺️ EURUSD Intraday Price Action

✅ London Session:

• Price began to fill the daily bullish FVG, continuing the expected retracement.

• We had confirmation from the 15-minute chart with price moving cleanly through FVGs — showing directional momentum.

🕐 New York Session Entry:

• NY Killzone session offered the perfect retracement into a 15m bearish Order Block + overlapping FVG — a high-probability entry zone.

• From there, price sold off again, offering a clean move to the London session low, which was my intraday target.

📚 What I Learned

This trade taught me (and reminded me of) a few key principles:

1. Market structure matters.
   The 4H close helped me understand where price was really heading, rather than reacting emotionally to intraday moves.

2. Retracements are not reversals.
   The bullish move last week needed a rebalancing — and that gave us an intraday short opportunity. Knowing the difference prevents overtrading or poor bias.

3. Context is everything.
   When DXY is targeting a level, that helps frame my EURUSD bias. Even if the trend is still up, the temporary weakness becomes tradable.

4. React to what price does next.
   Now that EURUSD has tapped into the daily bullish OB, I’ll watch how price reacts. Do we form a new bullish structure? Or do we continue breaking down?

The next move depends on how structure evolves. No guessing — just reading.

💡 Final Thoughts

Tuesday’s EURUSD trade was a clean example of structure aligning across timeframes, news volatility giving us displacement, and patience letting us wait for a precise entry. It wasn’t about catching the entire move — just capturing a clean retracement with strong confluence.

This is how I approach the markets now — not trying to guess reversals or tops/bottoms, but reading structure and trading with intent.

💻 Need charts like mine?
I use TradingView for all my markups — it’s the cleanest way to follow market structure and execute smart money concepts.
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