EURUSD Trade Recap – ICT Smart Money Concepts Long Setup | June 4, 2025

Pair: EUR/USD
Session: New York

Model: ICT New York Continuation
Date: Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Understanding Structure, Retracements, and Patience

Overview

On Wednesday, June 4, 2025, the EURUSD presented a compelling long opportunity during the New York session, aligning with the ICT New York Continuation Model. This setup was underpinned by a confluence of factors, including higher timeframe bearish signals on the DXY, market structure shifts, and respected fair value gaps (FVGs) and order blocks. The trade capitalized on the dollar's weakness following disappointing U.S. economic data and leveraged key ICT concepts to identify optimal entry and exit points.

Higher Timeframe Analysis: DXY Weakness

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) had recently traded into a daily bearish order block and closed below its open on Tuesday, June 3. This price action suggested a potential reversal or at least a pause in the dollar's strength. Additionally, the DXY was respecting a bearish inversion fair value gap (IFVG) on the daily chart, with price failing to close above its midpoint.

On the 4-hour timeframe, candles exhibited wicks to the upside but closed lower, indicating selling pressure. The 4-hour order block and the midpoint of the IFVG were both acting as resistance, reinforcing the bearish bias on the dollar.

London Session: Setting the Stage

During the London session, the DXY experienced a displacement to the downside, breaking market structure. This move set the tone for the New York session, suggesting that any retracement into bearish FVGs could offer shorting opportunities on the dollar, and conversely, long opportunities on EURUSD.

EURUSD: Building a Bullish Bias

With the dollar showing signs of weakness, the EURUSD was poised for a bullish move. The pair had taken out the previous day's low (Tuesday) and exhibited a displacement to the upside, breaking market structure on the 1-hour chart. This price action indicated a shift in momentum, providing a bullish bias for the New York session.

New York Session: Executing the Trade

The New York session offered multiple entry opportunities aligned with the ICT New York Continuation Model:

1. Entry 1: Price retraced into a 1-hour bullish FVG and showed signs of support, providing an initial entry point.

2. Entry 2: On the 15-minute chart, bullish candle closures within a bullish order block offered a secondary entry opportunity.

3. Entry 3: Price interacted with the 4-hour IFVG, which was now acting as support after being respected

Each of these entries provided favorable risk-to-reward ratios, with stop-loss placements below the respective FVGs or order blocks.

Targets and Outcomes

The primary target for this trade was the previous day's London session high. Given the bullish momentum and the dollar's weakness, there was potential for extended targets, including higher timeframe FVG fills.

The trade played out as anticipated, with EURUSD reaching and surpassing the initial target, validating the analysis and execution based on ICT principles.

Lessons Learned

• Market Structure Matters: Waiting for the 4-hour and 1-hour closures provided clear confirmation of the market's direction.

• Confluence is Key: Aligning multiple factors—such as order blocks, FVGs, and market structure shifts—enhanced the trade's probability of success.

• Patience Pays Off: Allowing the market to come to key levels and waiting for confirmation reduced the likelihood of false entries.

• Understanding Kill Zones: Recognizing the significance of the New York Kill Zone helped in timing the entries effectively.

Learn More

Interested in mastering the ICT New York Continuation Model? Click here to learn more.

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